Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Reality check

Ruy Teixeira of Emerging Democratic Majority has a reality check on the polls. Gallup shows Bush with only a two-point bounce, so we can all stop hyperventilating. And Teixeira delves into the Gallup details -- and finds good news:

Bush's acceptance speech, which the media fawned over so ostentatiously, was not rated any better by the public than was Kerry's--in fact, it received slightly worse ratings. Kerry's acceptance speech was rated excellent by 25 percent and good by 27 percent; Bush's was rated excellent by 22 percent and good by 27 percent.

In terms of whether the Republican convention made voters more or less likely to vote for Bush--the real point of the convention after all--there were almost as many saying the convention made them less likely to vote for Bush (38 percent) as said it made them more likely (41 percent).

This is actually quite a poor performance.
The Democratic convention this year had a substantially better 44 percent more likely/30 percent less likely split. In fact, looking back to 1984, which is as far back as Gallup supplies data, no candidate has ever had a more likely to vote for/less likely to vote for split even close to as bad as Bush's this year.

So chill -- but don't relax. Go volunteer for the Kerry-Edwards campaign. (I'll be working the phones for them tonight.)


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